Oscars Predictions, T-Minus Two Months
Hollywood is burning, and yet…
Today was a big day for awards obsessives. Voting on Oscar nominations just opened for the roughly 10,000 members of the Academy. Both SAG (the actors’ union) and the DGA (director’s union) announced nominations for their own awards this morning. Those two groups give us a major indication as to how their corresponding Academy branches will vote. More guilds and “precursor” awards roll out over the rest of the next few days.
But I don’t think anyone in the film industry is thinking about trophies today.
The wildfires sweeping through the LA area crossed a horrific threshold on Tuesday night, directly or indirectly affecting everyone who works in entertainment. As I’m publishing this, a fire broke out in the Hollywood Hills. Needless to say, it would be rather gauche to aggressively campaign for an Oscar nomination right now. The Academy has extended voting by two days; ballots now have to be submitted by next Tuesday evening. Announcement of the nominees is likewise pushed back. (Two days doesn’t seem long enough; should have been a week IMO.)
It seems silly now, but here’s a big update to my Oscar predictions, which I had planned to run well in advance of current events. Unless something changes, the nominations will now be announced on Sunday, January 19, and I’ll be sending out my initial reactions then.
My Nomination Predictions, as of January 18
NOTE: this was originally published on January 8, but now that Oscar voting has closed and some more guild nominations were announced, I’ve made a few swaps in my predictions, which are noted below. A change in my confidence scores are noted with ⬆️ and ⬇️ emojis. These are my final guesses!!
Last month’s predictions can be found here. (I’d put up a direct comparison but Substack doesn’t natively support tables and I don’t want to screenshot a spreadsheet.) And my wishful thinking ballot, of who I want to be nominated, can be found here.
I have no particular connections to anyone in the Academy or any fancy statistical models. This is just based on vibes, educated guesses, and way too much knowledge about the Oscars process1.
Since awards campaigns and political campaigns have become eerily similar, I’ve taken a page from the Cook Political Report and rated my predictions based on my confidence that they will be nominated:
Solid: almost certain. Would be a huge shock if this doesn’t happen
Likely: very confident. Big surprise if it doesn’t get nominated
Lean: pretty sure this gets nominated, but wouldn’t be too surprised if not
Toss-Up: not at all sure, going off my gut
My prediction for the outright winner is bolded.
Best Picture
Solid
Anora
A Complete Unknown ⬆️
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
The Brutalist
Wicked
Likely
Dune: Part Two
Lean
A Real Pain
Toss-Up
September 5
Sing Sing
On the bubble (a nomination from anything not on this list would be a big surprise): The Substance, Nickel Boys, The Wild Robot
I’m holding onto my prediction that A Complete Unknown wins Best Picture. I still haven’t figured out how to place bets on Oscar results (so if you make any money off my predictions please send me a finder’s fee), but the odds I am seeing online are really, really low and worth taking a flyer on. Pray that Emilia Pérez and Wicked do not win Best Picture!!
Director
Solid
Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez
Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Likely
Sean Baker, Anora
Lean
James Mangold, A Complete Unknown
Toss-Up
RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys
On the bubble: Edward Berger (Conclave), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two)
The Directors’ Branch of the Academy typically goes 4 of 5 with the DGA noms. This year, I think the Conclave director is the odd man out. Sidenote: really happy that Sean Wang (Dìdi) got a DGA nod for First Time Feature!
Actress
Solid
Mikey Madison, Anora
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
Likely
Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez
Lean
Demi Moore, The Substance
Toss-Up
Fernanda Torres, I'm Still Here
On the bubble: Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl), Angelina Jolie (Maria), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths), Nicole Kidman (Babygirl)
First four on this list are pretty close to being locked in. Similar to the directing category, there’s usually one or two nominees different here versus the SAG Awards.
Actor
Solid
Timothee Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Ralph Fiennes , Conclave
Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Lean
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Toss-Up
Daniel Craig, Queer
On the bubble: Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice), Sebastian Stan (A Different Man)
Sebastian Stan deserves to be in here, for either of his excellent, transformative performances. But I think the two films will split his vote unless there are a lot of Stan stans in the Actors’ Branch who are willing to nominate him twice. While it would be very funny if he had two nominations here, Academy rules don’t allow this to happen. Essentially, the highest ranked performance will be nominated, with the other eliminated.
Supporting Actress
Solid
Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
Ariana Grande , Wicked
Lean
Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown
Toss-Up
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano LessonJamie Lee Curtis, The Last Showgirl
On the bubble: Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Margaret Qualley (The Substance), Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez), Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys), Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson)
I will take credit for my very, very early prediction that Monica Barbaro (of Top Gun: Maverick fame) would get a nomination for her performance as Joan Baez. Still haven’t even seen that movie!
Supporting Actor
Solid
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Lean
Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
Yura Borisov, Anora
Toss-Up
Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing
On the bubble: Denzel Washington (Gladiator II), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice), Stanley Tucci (Conclave)
Might as well get a head start on engraving Kieran Culkin’s name onto that statue! He’s gonna win; the question is whether his Succession co-star will be there to congratulate him. Most people have Denzel in their predictions, but since 2013, all of his Oscar noms were preceded by a nod from SAG. That didn’t happen this year; the actors opted to instead nominate Jonathan Bailey for Wicked, lol.
Original Screenplay
Solid
Anora
The Brutalist
Likely
A Real Pain
Toss-Up
Hard Truths
The Substance
On the bubble: September 5, All We Imagine as Light, Challengers
Adapted Screenplay
Solid
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Lean
A Complete Unknown
Toss-Up
Nickel Boys
The Room Next DoorEmilia Pérez
On the bubble: Sing Sing, The Room Next Door, Wicked, I’m Still Here
Animated Feature Film
Solid
Inside Out 2
The Wild Robot
Likely
Flow
Toss-Up
Moana 2
Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
On the bubble: Memoir of a Snail
Cinematography
Solid
Dune: Part Two
Likely
The Brutalist
Nickel Boys ⬇️
Lean
Maria
Toss-Up
A Complete Unknown
On the bubble: Wicked, Nosferatu, Conclave, Emilia Pérez
Ed Lachman snagged a surprise nomination for his work on last year’s El Conde. Wouldn’t be surprised that he makes it again with Maria, which was also directed by Pablo Larraín.
ASC (cinematographer’s guild) puts their nominations out tomorrow. If A Complete Unknown is on the list, my rating here changes to Likely.
Costume Design
Solid
Wicked
Likely
Dune: Part Two
Gladiator II
Toss-Up
Beetlejuice BeetlejuiceNosferatuConclave
On the bubble: A Complete Unknown, Maria, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Documentary Feature
Likely
Black Box Diaries
Sugarcane
Lean
Daughters
No Other Land
Toss-Up
Will & Harper
On the bubble: Dahomey, Soundtrack to a Coup d’État, The Remarkable Life of Ibelin
The doc branch recently took up a habit of blocking populist, celeb-driven films being nominated, sometimes not even reaching the preliminary shortlist stage. It happened this year, with buzzy bio-docs about Christopher Reeve, Elton John, John Williams, and Martha Stewart shut out of the running early on. Scott Feinberg at the The Hollywood Reporter may complain as much as he wants, but his explanation for why this happens is sound:
…much of the [Documentary] branch doesn’t want to advance a populist doc because members know that if it ends up nominated, then the full Academy, which gets to join the branch in picking the winner, will choose it over a doc with arguably more social import, as happened repeatedly around a decade ago.
In the wake of OscarsSoWhite, the doc branch became much more diverse and international, which has affected which films they nominate. The electorate has changed.
For this reason, I am not sure if Will & Harper will get nominated. But if it does, it will win.
Film Editing
Solid
Dune: Part Two
Likely
Anora
Lean
The Brutalist
Toss-Up
A Complete Unknown
September 5
On the bubble: Wicked, Conclave, Emilia Pérez
Conventional Oscars wisdom dictates that to win Best Picture, a film would also need to win at least one of the Director, Writing, or Editing awards. Bayesian logic applies: because I predict A Complete Unknown to win Best Picture, and I don’t think it wins Director or Writing, it’ll probably have to win Editing too.
International Feature Film
Solid
Emilia Pérez
I’m Still Here
Lean
The Seed of the Sacred Fig
Toss-Up
Kneecap
The Girl with the Needle
On the bubble: Flow, Vermiglio
Makeup and Hairstyling
Solid
Wicked
Lean
Dune: Part Two ⬇️
Nosferatu ⬇️
Toss-Up
The Apprentice
Beetlejuice BeetlejuiceThe Substance
On the bubble: Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Emilia Pérez, A Different Man
Original Score
Likely
Conclave
The Brutalist
Lean
Challengers
Emilia Pérez
Toss-Up
Wicked
On the bubble: The Wild Robot, The Room Next Door
Original Song
Solid
El Mal — Emilia Pérez
Likely
The Journey — The Six Triple Eight [aka the obligatory Diane Warren slot]
Lean
Tell Me It's You — Mufasa: The Lion King
Toss-Up
Never Too Late — Elton John: Never Too Late
Like a Bird — Sing Sing
On the bubble: Kiss the Sky — The Wild Robot, Mi Camino — Emilia Pérez, Beyond — Moana 2, Harper and Will Go West — Will and Harper
Diane Warren is on the verge of making history as being the most nominated woman in this category. (She won’t win until she writes a good song again.) Zoe Saldaña’s scene stealer from Emilia Pérez is on a glide path to victory. I’m sure the Oscars producers are desperately hoping the Selena Gomez song also gets a nom so that she’ll perform it at the ceremony.
Lin-Manuel Miranda’s compositions for Mufasa are just okay, with the exception of “Tell Me It’s You,” a love duet between the young Mufasa and Sarabi. It’s awkward in the movie. Disney put out a clip of it, and you can see how it sucks the life out of the song:
But listening to this song on its own, I think it is… quite great? I really like Aaron Pierre and Tiffany Boone’s vocal performances, and even if the melodies are so obviously written by Lin-Manuel, they’re catchy and effective. If used in a much better movie (or a real musical!!), and had a proper bridge, this would be much more popular and Lin-Manuel could finally get that EGOT.
Production Design
Solid
Dune: Part Two
Wicked
Lean
Gladiator II
The Brutalist
Toss-Up
BlitzConclave
On the bubble: Blitz, Nosferatu, Emilia Pérez
Animated Short Film
Toss-Up
A Bear Named Wojtek
A Crab in the PoolBeautiful MenMagic Candies
MeMaybe ElephantsYuck!
I’ve seen all fifteen of the shortlisted films in this category because I’m a maniac. After nominations are announced I’ll clean up my draft reviews of the five finalists.
Oddly, there are no Disney or Pixar productions on the shortlist, which used to be a guaranteed win, let alone nomination. Coincidentally, there were no shorts that ran front of Inside Out 2 and Moana 2, their most recent releases. What happened there?
Live Action Short Film
Toss-Up
Dovecote
The Ice Cream Man
The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent
An Orange from Jaffa
Paris 70
Note: I haven’t had the time to see any of the shortlisted films in this category, and know close to nothing about any of them, so I’ve just picked the ones with the best titles.
Documentary Short Subject
Toss-Up
Chasing Roo
Death by Numbers
Incident
Once upon a Time in Ukraine
The Only Girl in the Orchestra
Same note applies as above.
Sound
Solid
A Complete Unknown
Dune: Part Two
Wicked
Lean
Emilia Pérez
Toss-Up
Alien: RomulusGladiator II
On the bubble: Deadpool & Wolverine, Alien: Romulus, Blitz
A lot of people had Twisters in their predictions, myself included, but it wasn’t shortlisted.
Visual Effects
Solid
Dune: Part Two
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Lean
Mufasa: The Lion King ⬇️
Toss-Up
Alien: RomulusBetter ManTwisters
On the bubble: Alien: Romulus, Wicked, Deadpool & Wolverine
If you’re a nerd about voting systems and curious about how this all works: for nominations, the Academy uses a single transferable vote system for each category except Visual Effects, which uses reweighted range voting. There’s a written explanation of the STV process, or you can watch this CGP Grey video. The winners of the Oscars are determined by simple a first-past-the-post (plurality) vote, with the exception of Best Picture, which uses a ranked choice voting system. In addition, ten categories have a preliminary shortlist stage, which was announced in December.