Oscars Predictions, T-Minus Three Months
Awards season is dumb but I care about it a lot.
The 97th Academy Awards are in exactly three months (March 2, 2025) — and this week is when “awards season” really launches into earnest. Over the past couple months, studios have been hosting screenings and launching campaigns targeted to the press and industry members who vote on shiny awards, with good ol’ Oscar as the ultimate prize. “For your consideration” is a phrase you see way too often. The results are starting to pay off, with the Gotham Awards ceremony tonight (if you’re wondering why so many “awards films” have Q&As in New York this week, it’s because they’re all in town for this), the New York Film Critics Circle debating and voting on their winners tomorrow, and so on, so forth: Golden Globes, Independent Spirit Awards, SAG Awards.
There’s a whole media-industrial complex built around these things, and accordingly, a lot of noise. I don’t want to be an “Oscars pundit,” so I won’t be writing too much about the awards. But it is something that I follow despite myself, so about once a month I’ll get it out of my system and post a list of my predictions and a few random thoughts1.
The quest for these movie awards resemble political campaigns, but with overt corporate sponsorships and bribery as opposed to covert sponsorships and bribery2. Actors and directors even hire ghostwriters for all the speeches they may or may not give at the fancy galas and “precursor” awards shows that eat up all the Hollywood media oxygen from now until March. It seems tiring for all involved, but getting that Best Picture nomination (or win) guarantees a film gets more viewers (which means more $$ for the studio), and it’s fun to see the stars get glammed up and win things. And honestly, it’s fun for me to get into it! I just have no illusions that anyone is really celebrating art; I consider the Oscars to be my Super Bowl in every sense of that term.
Who Might Be Nominated (And Who Should Be)
At this point in time, it’s pretty early, given that the shortlists for certain categories don’t come out until later in the month, and none of the major awards have even put out their nominations. I think this stage is a lot more fun than picking the winners; it’s way more chaotic. Last year I did really well, correctly predicting 94 of the 120 nomination slots (78%), and also got the same percentage of the actual winners. (Don’t ask me how I did the year before 😫).
I have no particular connections to anyone in the Academy or statistical models, this is just based on vibes and the knowledge that each branch votes on their own nominations — so actors pick actors, editors pick editors, etc.
My prediction for the outright winner is bolded, and noms are in order of likelihood of winning (not of being nominated!)
Best Picture
A Complete Unknown
Anora
Conclave
Wicked
The Brutalist
September 5
A Real Pain
Sing Sing
Dune: Part Two
Blitz
Should be nominated: All We Imagine as Light; I Saw the TV Glow
Director
Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
James Mangold, A Complete Unknown
Sean Baker, Anora
Denis Villeneuve, Dune Part Two
Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig
Should be nominated: RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys; Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light
Actor
Timothee Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain
Should be nominated: Sebastian Stan, A Different Man & The Apprentice; Glen Powell, Hit Man
Actress
Mikey Madison, Anora
Angelina Jolie, Maria
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
Karla Sofia Gascon, Emilia Pérez
Demi Moore, The Substance
Should be nominated: Léa Drucker, Last Summer; Lily Collias, Good One
Supporting Actor
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
Stanley Tucci, Conclave
Yura Borisov, Anora
Willem Dafoe, Nosferatu
Should be nominated: Jay O. Sanders, His Three Daughters; Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing
Supporting Actress
Ariana Grande, Wicked
Saoirse Ronan, Blitz
Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown
Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson
Should be nominated: Auli’i Cravalho, Mean Girls; Toni Colette, Juror #2
Original Screenplay
Anora
A Real Pain
The Brutalist
September 5
Challengers
Should be nominated: Juror #2; His Three Daughters
Adapted Screenplay
Conclave
A Complete Unknown
Nickel Boys
Dune: Part Two
The Room Next Door
Should be nominated: Nickel Boys; Hit Man
International Feature Film
I’m Still Here
Emilia Pérez
The Seed of the Sacred Fig
The Girl with the Needle
Vermiglio
Should be nominated, but not even submitted by their country’s film commission: All We Imagine as Light; Happyend
It’s the Olympics of the Oscars, with each country submitting one movie for this category. Every single year, journalists complain about how the process is rife with corruption and provide good ideas for much needed reform. Every single year, nothing changes!
Animated Feature Film
The Wild Robot
Inside Out 2
Moana 2
Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
Flow
Documentary Feature
Will & Harper
Daughters
Black Box Diaries
Dahomey
Union
Should be nominated: Soundtrack to a Coup d’État
Original Score
The Brutalist
Conclave
Challengers
Emilia Pérez
The Room Next Door
Should be nominated: Evil Does Not Exist
Original Song
“I Always Wanted a Brother,” Mufasa: The Lion King
“Beyond,” Moana 2
“Mi Camino,” Emilia Pérez
“Never Too Late,” Elton John: Never Too Late
“The Journey,” The Six Triple Eight (aka The Diane Warren Slot)
Should be nominated: “Starburned And Unkissed” - I Saw The TV Glow; “Guard Down” - The Idea of You
Sound
Wicked
Dune: Part Two
A Complete Unknown
Twisters
Conclave
Should be nominated: Good One
Production Design
Wicked
Blitz
Dune: Part Two
The Brutalist
Gladiator II
Should be nominated: Dìdi
Cinematography
Dune: Part Two
The Brutalist
Nickel Boys
Nosferatu
Maria
Should be nominated: Trap, The Fire Inside
Makeup and Hairstyling
Wicked
Nosferatu
A Complete Unknown
The Substance
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Should be nominated: The Apprentice
Costume Design
Wicked
Dune: Part Two
Gladiator II
Conclave
Maria
Should be nominated: Megalopolis; The Brutalist
Film Editing
A Complete Unknown
Anora
September 5
The Brutalist
Dune: Part Two
Should be nominated: Soundtrack to a Coup d’État; Oh, Canada
Visual Effects
Dune: Part Two
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Twisters
Mufasa: The Lion King
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
Should be nominated: Here
Thanks for reading through all this 😅 Let me know your thoughts on my thoughts!
If you want to follow the Oscar race closely, I find Kyle Buchanan (NY Times), Dave Poland (Independent), and Katey Rich (The Ankler) to be among the journalists who do this with the least BS. There is a lot of noise out there. I ignore the professional prognosticators at Variety and The Hollywood Reporter, as they use nomination predictions to push their own agendas.
Sorry, I mean “FYC packages.” Not that I wouldn’t mind receiving them!