The Oscar Cometh
Let’s see how I good I was at predicting the nominees.
It was a pretty darn good year for movies, but you wouldn’t always know it from looking at the Oscar nominees. (Not that I’m the ultimate arbiter of taste, but of my top twenty films of 2024, only four of them were nominated for Best Picture, though I would have slotted A Complete Unknown in there had I seen it in time… that’s actually pretty good, but the other five noms range from okay to awful.) To the most cynical bystander, the Academy Awards are a simulacrum of the American political system. It’s less about honoring artistic achievement in cinema and more about voting from the limited choice of candidates — the films that receive the right funding, both to make and promote them.
The simpler explanation is that this is a voting group of nearly 10,000 industry professionals, all of whom have their own tastes. Are they swayed by marketing campaigns, same as any of us? Certainly. But while a good PR push can get them to watch a movie, it won’t force them to like it. This is why I hate the word “snub.” It’s not like these people all get into a room and conspire to stop Nicole Kidman from getting a nomination. And remember, for nominations, voters only decide within their own respective branch (plus Best Picture, with opt-ins for international & animated features and the shorts). Everyone votes on the winners.
Anyways. This morning’s announcement, which was presented by Bowen Yang and Rachel Sennott, kicks off the final phase of Oscar season! The 97th Academy Awards will be broadcast on Sunday, March 2.
(Also, if you subscribe to this newsletter mainly for the food stuff, fear not — I’m working on a roundup of restaurants I went to over the past few weeks! Sorry not sorry, the Oscar season is my NFL playoffs, and Academy Awards ceremony is my Super Bowl.)
My Oscar Predictions, as of Nomination Morning
Given a year with no clear frontrunner, I think the Academy will spread the wealth a bit more than others. Here’s the summary:
Most pleasant surprises: Nickel Boys in Best Picture and Sing Sing in Original Song. Sebastian Stan and Jeremy Strong being recognized for The Apprentice.
Most disappointing: Kneecap and Challengers completely shut out. Dune: Part Two woefully underperforming. The industry’s inexplicable love for Emilia Pérez.
Initial Reactions & Predictions Check
Since you’ve probably already seen the whole list of nominees, this is focused on comparing my predictions to the actual nominees, plus my quick thoughts on the race. The list is sort of information dense. Hopefully it all makes sense…
I retained my final nomination predictions for every category, including my confidence tiers1; my predicted winner at the time is bolded. If I got a nomination wrong, I crossed out my incorrect guesses and put the replacement at the bottom.
Films that I haven’t seen are italicized. I’ve already seen 27 of the 35 nominated films and 5 of 15 shorts contenders (and all the films I haven’t seen have one nom apiece).
How’d I do? Overall, I correctly predicted 84 of 120 nominations (70%); 77 of 105 (73%) if you exclude the short film categories. This was worse than last year, when I got 78% of the nominations right (81% without shorts). That’s not necessarily a bad thing — I like surprises! — but this year I got at least one nomination wrong in every category but Best Actress. Blame my belief in Dune.
Best Picture
Solid
Anora
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
The Brutalist
Wicked
Likely
Dune: Part Two
Lean
A Real Pain
Toss-Up
September 5Sing Sing
Didn’t predict
I’m Still Here
Nickel Boys
The Substance
Will win: A Complete Unknown (Lean)
Want to win: Nickel Boys
Should’a been a contender: All We Imagine As Light
Commentary: This was the last category to be announced this morning, and they really saved the biggest surprises for last! Nickel Boys was written off by many, including myself, and no one really had the Brazilian drama I’m Still Here on the board. I still think that this is for A Complete Unknown to lose. I finally saw it earlier this week and unexpectedly LOVED it… more on that soon… but I had this predicted back in December, before it was widely screened for press and industry. Now if only I could have bet money on that film when the odds were insanely low.
Besides the Dylan pic, I’d say the biggest contenders at the moment are The Brutalist and Emilia Pérez, the latter of which snagged the most nominations today (13, one away from tying the record). And I think that Sing Sing was in 11th place, just barely missing out on a nom.
This announcement means my dinner planning begins in earnest. Every year I host a dinner party with ten courses, one for each Best Picture nominee. If you have any good ideas please please send them my way. In the meantime, I’m gonna recipe test tortellini (Conclave) and crême brulée (The Brutalist; créme brutalist… get it??).
Director
Solid
Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez
Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Likely
Sean Baker, Anora
Lean
James Mangold, A Complete Unknown
Toss-Up
RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys
Didn’t predict
Coralie Fargeat, The Substance
Will win: Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (Likely)
Want to win: Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Should’a been a contender: RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys
Commentary: If I were a bit smarter I would have gone 5 for 5 in this category. The trend of this category going 4 / 5 with the DGA noms continues; most people swapped out Mangold for Edward Berger (Conclave). Still, the trophy is certainly gonna go to Corbet, given the narrative about the $10 million budget on The Brutalist. (The AI stuff that was making the rounds earlier this week isn’t gonna make a dent. Most Academy voters are not as online as we are.)
Actress
Solid
Mikey Madison, Anora
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
Likely
Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez
Lean
Demi Moore, The Substance
Toss-Up
Fernanda Torres, I'm Still Here
Will win: Demi Moore, The Substance (Lean)
Want to win: Demi Moore, The Substance
Should’a been a contender: Zendaya, Challengers
Commentary: This was the only category where I got every guess right, but this may have been the easiest one to predict. Although the Golden Globes are a BS awards show, the right acceptance speech can make an impact, making voters pay attention to their performances. Both Demi Moore and Fernanda Torres won Globes this year and sealed a nomination with their powerful speeches. While Mikey Madison has a bravado breakout in Anora, I’m going with Moorementum to carry Elizabeth Sparkle to victory.
I was thinking last night that the Academy might disregard the suggested lead/supporting placements and put Zoe Saldaña here instead of Supporting Actress (she’s the main character of the film!!), but that didn’t happen.
Actor
Solid
Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Ralph Fiennes , Conclave
Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Lean
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Toss-Up
Daniel Craig, Queer
Didn’t predict
Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice
Will win: Timothee Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (Toss-Up)
Want to win: Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Should’a been a contender: Josh Hartnett, Trap
Commentary: Can’t wait to see the Truth Social post about this one! The Winter Soldier had two terrific leading performances, which I feared would split the vote, but he made it in for his brilliant portrayal of a young Donald Trump. While I’d love for Domingo to pick up his first Oscar win, this will be a dead heat between a real-life folk/rock singer and a fictional Hungarian architect. Gut goes with Timothée.
Supporting Actress
Solid
Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
Ariana Grande , Wicked
Lean
Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown
Toss-Up
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
Jamie Lee Curtis, The Last Showgirl
Didn’t predict
Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
Will win: Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (Likely)
Want to win: Ariana Grande, Wicked
Should’a been a contender: Joan Chen, Dìdi
Commentary: Not many had Barbaro on their lists. I had her ever since December (again, when barely anyone had seen the dang movie… I had a feeling). She’s terrific as Joan Baez. But Saldaña goes home with the award. I think the “category fraud” discourse tends to be insufferable. But in this case… come on, she’s the lead of her film!
Supporting Actor
Solid
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Lean
Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
Yura Borisov, Anora
Toss-Up
Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing
Didn’t predict
Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
Will win: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (Solid)
Want to win: Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
Should’a been a contender: Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (but he’s a nominee for the screenplay!!)
Commentary: Might as well engrave that Oscar for Culkin. This is the strongest acting category. None of these five films would work without the brilliant turns from these men.
Original Screenplay
Solid
Anora
The Brutalist
Likely
A Real Pain
Toss-Up
Hard TruthsThe Substance
Didn’t predict
September 5
Will win: The Brutalist (Toss-Up)
Want to win: A Real Pain
Should’a been a contender: Juror #2
Commentary: I could see any of these winning besides September 5. (Imagine the toxic internet discourse had that movie been a stronger contender. Phew.)
Adapted Screenplay
Solid
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Lean
A Complete Unknown
Toss-Up
Nickel Boys
Emilia Pérez
Didn’t predict
Sing Sing
Will win: A Complete Unknown (Toss-Up)
Want to win: Nickel Boys
Should’a been a contender: Hit Man
Commentary: The biggest surprise of nomination morning is Dune: Part Two being shut out of many of the categories that the first film got recognition for. Recency bias is a pretty big issue — see how Challengers got blanked.
I would say Conclave and Emilia Pérez are the top two contenders. But because I’m going with A Complete Unknown to win Best Picture, I’m picking it here.
Animated Feature Film
Solid
Inside Out 2
The Wild Robot
Likely
Flow
Toss-Up
Moana 2Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
Didn’t predict
Memoir of a Snail
Will win: The Wild Robot (Likely)
Want to win: TBD
Should’a been a contender: Look Back
Commentary: Picking up nods for Score and Sound, I think it’s The Wild Robot’s to lose, with Flow a strong possibility. That would mark the third year in a row that Disney/Pixar doesn’t win this category.
Cinematography
Solid
Dune: Part Two
Likely
The Brutalist
Nickel Boys
Lean
Maria
Toss-Up
A Complete Unknown
Didn’t predict
Emilia Pérez
Nosferatu
Will win: The Brutalist (Lean)
Want to win: Maria
Should’a been a contender: Nickel Boys
Commentary: The omission of Jomo Fray’s brilliant work in Nickel Boys is my biggest disappointment. I could see why the cinematographers didn’t vote for him; one could say the POV is a directing achievement, not photography, but designing the first-person rigs is still a feat. I’d love for the legendary Ed Lachman (who is frequently spotted at repertory screenings in NYC) to win something, but it’s between Lol Crawley (The Brutalist) and Greig Fraser (Dune: Part Two). Don’t count out Emilia Pérez though.
Costume Design
Solid
Wicked
Likely
Dune: Part TwoGladiator II
Toss-Up
Conclave
Nosferatu
Didn’t predict
A Complete Unknown
Will win: Wicked (Likely)
Want to win: Wicked
Should’a been a contender: Dune: Part Two
Commentary: Dune misses again! Perhaps voters saw it as a retread for the first film and didn’t want to nominate it twice.
Documentary Feature
Likely
Black Box Diaries
Sugarcane
Lean
DaughtersNo Other Land
Toss-Up
Will & Harper
Didn’t predict
Porcelain War
Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat
Will win: No Other Land (Toss-Up)
Want to win: No Other Land
Should’a been a contender: New Wave
Commentary: As I surmised, the Documentary branch refused to pick any of the easygoing, celeb-driven options. I really like that they focus on artier stuff, not just because of my personal preferences, but it puts eyeballs on these films. Had Hale County, This Morning This Evening not gotten a surprise nomination six years ago, RaMell Ross wouldn’t have made Nickel Boys.
Regarding Porcelain War: this branch really loves their Ukraine docs.
With the most obvious winner in Will & Harper is out of the way, my gut says No Other Land pulls this off, but Black Box Diaries is less controversial and is very good. (No Other Land really shouldn’t be the subject of any controversy. More on that next week.)
Film Editing
Solid
Dune: Part Two
Likely
Anora
Lean
The Brutalist
Toss-Up
A Complete UnknownSeptember 5
Didn’t predict
Wicked
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
Will win: Emilia Pérez (Toss-Up)
Want to win: The Brutalist
Should’a been a contender: Rap World
Commentary: If I swapped out my Dune predictions with Emilia Pérez in every category, I would have been far more accurate lol
International Feature Film
Solid
Emilia Pérez
I’m Still Here
Lean
The Seed of the Sacred Fig
Toss-Up
KneecapThe Girl with the Needle
Didn’t predict
Flow
Will win: Emilia Pérez (Likely)
Want to win: The Seed of the Sacred Fig
Should’a been a contender: All We Imagine as Light
Commentary: You could probably engrave the Oscar for EP, but the surprise nomination for I’m Still Here gives us a dark horse for this category. The French film has 13 noms in total, the most ever for any non-English film beating then ten-nom record set by Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon (2000) and Roma (2018).
Makeup and Hairstyling
Solid
Wicked
Lean
Dune: Part TwoNosferatu
Toss-Up
The ApprenticeThe Substance
Didn’t predict
Emilia Pérez
A Different Man
Will win: Wicked (Toss-Up)
Want to win: Wicked
Should’a been a contender: The Apprentice
Commentary: Really happy about A Different Man making it here. I could honestly see any of these movies winning this category. Nosferatu stans: this is the film’s best shot at winning an Oscar.
Original Score
Likely
Conclave
The Brutalist
Lean
ChallengersEmilia Pérez
Toss-Up
Wicked
Didn’t predict
The Wild Robot
Will win: The Brutalist (Toss-Up)
Want to win: The Brutalist
Should’a been a contender: Challengers!!!!!!!!!
Commentary: I’m scared that Conclave, which has the worst score of the year, will win. And how does Challengers not make it in? I will take bragging rights for the Wicked prediction though; John Powell seems to be popular in the rather small Music branch.
Original Song
Solid
“El Mal” — Emilia Pérez
Likely
“The Journey” — The Six Triple Eight
Lean
“Tell Me It's You” — Mufasa: The Lion King
Toss-Up
“Never Too Late” — Elton John: Never Too Late
“Like a Bird” — Sing Sing
Didn’t predict
“Mi Camino” — Emilia Pérez
Will win: “El Mal” — Emilia Pérez (Solid)
Want to win: “Like a Bird” — Sing Sing
Should’a been a contender: “Tell Me It's You” — Mufasa: The Lion King
Commentary: Unfortunately, there will be no performances of the nominated songs this year. Fair enough when the biggest music moments of the year were from Wicked and A Complete Unknown, both of which used pre-existing works, and most of the time people use these segments as bathroom breaks. (There is also speculation that neither Zoe Saldaña nor Selena Gomez wanted to sing their songs live.)
While Lin-Manuel Miranda misses out on another chance to almost EGOT, perennial candidate Diane Warren will lose her eighth year in a row! This is her 16th nomination, with zero wins, but the songs she’s been nommed for in the 21st century are a far cry from what she wrote in the 90s.
I think I actually did really well with this category. Don’t think many people had the Sing Sing song or Elton John track on their lists. (Also, Brandi Carlile is now an Oscar nominee!!!! She co-wrote “Never Too Late.” Sad we’re not getting to see performances of these two songs.
Production Design
I love that the Art Directors Guild shares presentations of their own awards contenders, all of which are also nominated here. The links below take you to those presentations!
Solid
Lean
Toss-Up
Didn’t predict
Will win: Wicked (Solid)
Want to win: Dune: Part Two
Should’a been a contender: The Room Next Door
Commentary: While the dull color grade doesn’t show it, Wicked has impressive, beautiful sets, and it’s gonna win this category.
Animated Short Film
Toss-Up
A Bear Named WojtekBeautiful Men
Magic Candies
Maybe ElephantsYuck!
Didn’t predict
In the Shadow of the Cypress
Wander to Wonder
Will win: Beautiful Men (Likely)
Want to win: Wander to Wonder
Should’a been a contender: A Crab in the Pool, Me
Commentary: Because I saw all fifteen of the shortlisted animated shorts in advance of today, I’ll have brief reviews of the nominees up soon! Usually the winner is the one that the most basic Oscar voter would go for.
Live Action Short Film
Toss-Up
DovecoteThe Ice Cream ManThe Man Who Could Not Remain Silent
An Orange from JaffaParis 70
Didn’t predict
Anuja
I’m Not a Robot
The Last Ranger
A Lien
Will win: The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent (Toss-Up)
Want to win: TBD
Should’a been a contender: n/a
Commentary: Will be watching all five of these nominees soon! For now just going with the best title. It me, the man who could not remain silent.
Documentary Short Subject
Toss-Up
Chasing RooDeath by Numbers
Incident
Once upon a Time in UkraineThe Only Girl in the Orchestra
Didn’t predict
I Am Ready, Warden
Instruments of a Beating Heart
Will win: Incident (Toss-Up)
Want to win: TBD
Should’a been a contender: TBD
Commentary: Instruments of a Beating Heart was directed by Ema Ryan Yamazaki, who skillfully edited Doc nominee Black Box Diaries. Congrats to her for being involved in two Oscar nominees! And producer Eric Nyari is nominated for each of them!
Sound
Solid
A Complete Unknown
Dune: Part Two
Wicked
Lean
Emilia Pérez
Toss-Up
Gladiator II
Didn’t predict
The Wild Robot
Will win: Wicked (Likely)
Want to win: Dune: Part Two
Should’a been a contender: Conclave
Commentary: On-set live vocals are the bane of movie musicals. Per the Academy’s press release: “Sound mixer Andy Nelson (Wicked) has a record 25 nominations in the combined Sound categories and is second only to John Williams (with 54) for the most nominations for a living person.”
Visual Effects
Solid
Dune: Part Two
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Lean
Mufasa: The Lion King
Toss-Up
Better Man
Twisters
Didn’t predict
Alien: Romulus
Wicked
Will win: Dune: Part Two (Lean)
Want to win: Better Man
Should’a been a contender: Megalopolis
Commentary: Three of these movies prominently feature CGI monkeys.
Guys… what if Wicked won Best Picture…
What do you think of my picks? If you agree or disagree, let me know:
As a reminder, these are the definitions for my confidence ratings for each nomination, which I’ll also apply to my predictions for the winners.
Solid: almost certain to be nominated (not necessarily win!). Would be a huge shock if this doesn’t happen
Likely: very confident. Big surprise if it doesn’t get nominated
Lean: pretty sure this gets nominated, but wouldn’t be too surprised if not
Toss-Up: not at all sure, going off my gut